In the words of John Lennon, “so this is Christmas, and what have you done? Another year over and a new one just begun.”
As 2024 draws to a sorry close, political leaders will be ruing the challenges of coalition government in a depressed economy.
None more so than Prime Minister Christopher Luxon who has struggled to convince voters that he can lead the country out of its current economic malaise.
While economic recovery remains the top priority, the Prime Minister has been trapped in the ACT Party vortex of the Treaty Principles Bill – a coalition commitment that could derail decades of improving Crown-Māori relations.
Mr Luxon has continued to blame the country’s problems on the previous government, while admitting modest progress on the coalition government’s nine KPIs in areas such as climate change, employment, health, and law and order. Health is a particular sore point with the underperforming Minister Dr Shane Reti – a prime candidate for demotion next year.
Interestingly, Mr Luxon has also acknowledged his own difficulties communicating and connecting with voters – a problem his colleagues will be worried about too.
While Mr Luxon’s finances might be “sorted” the government’s books are not, with Treasury’s latest forecasts showing the hubris of Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ first year tax cuts.
According to Treasury, unemployment will peak at 5.4% by the middle of next year and the government will have to keep borrowing to fund the gap between its expenditure and income with tax revenue down $13 billion over the next four years.
To lift productivity, National is betting on its social investment approach to get better results from social services, while controlling government expenditure.
On the plus side, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop has laid the foundations for a bi-partisan approach to fixing the country’s multi-billion infrastructure deficit. However, international firms remain sceptical about New Zealand’s commitment to private sector involvement in financing and building large projects. Meanwhile, the recent BlackRock controversy is a warning about how things can go wrong.
Rookie Cabinet Minister Simeon Brown is another who has made a positive impression in his first year as Minister of Transport and Local Government, although he will be sorely tested by systemic problems in the electricity sector next year, which will bring him into conflict with New Zealand First Deputy Leader Shane Jones.
Mr Jones may have lost the argument to reform the electricity sector, but he has paved the way for some ‘told you so’ moments in the winters to come.
He has been vociferous and scathing about the owners of New Zealand’s power stations and high energy prices that resulted in the closure of large industrial factories in provincial regions earlier in the year.
While Mr Jones is trying to convince oil and gas companies that New Zealand is open for business, firms are more concerned about what future governments will do – a problem exacerbated by the three-year Parliamentary term and quirks of MMP.
ACT Leader David Seymour will be pleased with his first year in government and publicity from his Treaty Principles Bill, but the last move of the year belonged to his nemesis and current Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters on his appointment as the new Minister of Rail – a role that hasn’t existed since 1993.
Mr Peters has demonstrated yet again his knack for controlling the political narrative and asserting himself at the centre of politics and public discourse.
For its first 12 months in government, the coalition gets a B- with lots of areas for improvement and storm clouds rolling in around the year of delivery.
There will be far more pressure on the coalition’s answer to John Lennon’s question this time next year.
Political polling – 2023 election to December 2024
Based on all political polling data from Roy Morgan, 1News-Verian, Curia-Taxpayers Union, Talbot Mills and The Post-Freshwater.
